EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- WOTF not computed (fields null). Proxy: this week’s low (~23892, Mon) sits well above last week’s low (23606); Friday closed 90% up the macro balance — an unconfirmed one-timeframe-up week.
- Verdict: value climbed every session — naked POCs step 23950 (Mon) -> 24000 (Tue) -> 24260 (Thu) -> 24350/24450 (Fri) — but Friday’s high (24429) was rejected at the three-week balance’s own ceiling (24367), leaving the advance unresolved.
- Footprint: buying tails at 23892-23934 (Mon low) and 24300-24361 (Fri low); the Mon-Tue balance (23940-24012) broke UP Thursday, now support.
- Primary (55%): acceptance above 24367 opens 24602; rejection resumes rotation toward 24180.
MACRO CONTEXT
Price closed at 24366.7, 90% up the 138-day macro balance (Mar9-Jul24, 22183-24602, center 24400). The short EMA stack is perfect-bullish (8>21>50), yet the 50/200-day cross stays bearish and only 46% of stocks trade above their 200dma. Anchored VWAPs rose day over day; the rolling stack stays mixed, price below the 250d line — WITH the bounce, AGAINST the longer trend.
THIS WEEK’S AUCTION REVIEW
Value migration: climbed all week, four straight higher centers, no overlaps (Mon ~23950 -> Tue ~24000 -> Wed gapped higher, 24041-24177 unfilled -> Thu 24260 -> Fri 24350/24450). Full Mon-Wed profiles aren’t in this pull — see data note below.
Weekly profile: weekly VAH/POC/VAL fields here are stale (Jul20-24). Confirmed instead: the Mon-Tue balance (VAH24012/VPOC23980/VAL23940) broke UP Thursday at 24296.6, now support — last week’s breakdown below 24016 repaired.
Day-by-day: Mon gap up, left a gap+tail. Tue extended the base, POCs naked. Wed gapped again, unfilled. Thu: Normal Variation, opened flat, reversed higher, broke the balance up, closed upper-quartile. Fri: gap up, tested down early, fresh high (24429.4) at the ceiling, faded to a middle close (24366.7) — unresolved.
Footprints: no weekly poor high/low. Naked POCs stack every 50-150pts, 23950-24450. Friday’s high left genuine excess (34pt tail) at the ceiling.
VOLATILITY REGIME CONTEXT
IV held NORMAL three sessions (8.4 close, 20th pctile — cheap); realized vol decelerated (HV5d 7.6 << HV20d 11.7). The advance runs ~1.4 weekly-sigma above the week’s start — stretched. Expect Facilitation-to-Grind unless the balance test resolves.
BALANCE AREA & BRACKET CONTEXT
Price tests two nested balances: the three-week high (24367.3, cleared to 24429.4, not held), and 90% up the macro balance. Per the 70/30 rule, default stays bracket — a close above 24367 is the first real evidence of a trend.
STRUCTURAL ZONES
ABOVE: 24429 (Fri high) -> 24450 (naked vol POC) -> 24580 (Apr tail) -> 24602 (macro high) -> 24677 (250d VWAP).
BELOW: 24350/24300 (Fri value/tail) -> 24248/24180 (3wk VAH/VPOC) -> 24012/23940 (broken balance) -> 23892 (week low) -> 23606 (prior tail).
NEXT WEEK’S PLAN
Primary (55%): IF Monday holds above 24180-24260 and prints 2+ periods above 24367, THEN expect a push to 24450, then 24580. 6/7 analogs lean bullish; every edge <1.0 — a lean, not a signal.
Alternate (45%): IF 24367 is rejected and 24180 gives way, THEN rotation resumes to the broken balance (23940-24012). Invalidation: acceptance below 24180.
Monday’s opens: a) Inside value (24350-24400): rotate, fade edges. b) Outside upper (24400-24429): hits the 24430-24460 cluster; needs acceptance above 24429. c) Outside lower (24300-24350): Fri’s buying tail favors a bounce. d) Above range TRAP WARNING: same cluster capped Friday; require acceptance before trusting 24580. e) Below range: opens 24180, then the broken balance.
WEEKLY LINE IN THE SAND + KEY LEVELS
24367 — the three-week balance’s ceiling, tagged and rejected Friday. Above with acceptance, bias favors 24602. Below, stalls toward 24180.
KEY LEVELS: 24677 250d VWAP | 24602 Macro High | 24580 Selling Tail | 24450 Naked Vol POC | 24429 Week High | 24367 Line in Sand | 24180 3wk VPOC | 24012 Broken VAH | 23892 Week Low.
AUCTION HEALTH
MODERATE-TO-HIGH — higher POCs and a repaired breakdown argue a real up week; the unresolved Friday rejection and bearish MA cross keep this shy of HIGH.
WEEKLY LEARNING NOTE
A week can migrate value higher every session and still end unresolved: the auction must clear a known ceiling, not just approach it. Let 24367 resolve before trusting the breakout.