POST-IB BRIEF — NIFTY
Quick take:
– Gapped down ~76 points and never looked back — a decisive, one-way open.
– The Initial Balance (first hour’s range) is already broken lower; price sits near session lows around 22,850.
– Friday’s “floor holds” read failed: price sliced through 23,116 and 23,021-23,057 without pausing.
– Options premium has held, not collapsed, and volatility stepped up — both say trending, not balancing.
– Line in the sand: 22,850. Below, sellers stay in control toward 22,676; above, a bounce toward 22,900-23,040 opens up.
Open Assessment
Open printed inside Friday’s value area (23,040-23,100), but sellers took over immediately with no rotation — an Open-Drive, the most decisive open type, where price never trades back through where it started. Friday expected 23,116 to hold on a probe; the bearish alternate is playing out instead.
Initial Balance
IB ran 23,080-22,850 (~230 pts), wider than the 20-day average day range (194 pts) — normally a containment signal. Price broke it anyway: real but thin, not yet a runaway trend.
Volume & Options
The at-the-money straddle (a bet on how far price moves either way) eased only ~4% since the open, far short of a balancing day’s typical 15-20% collapse — still pricing a trend. Implied volatility stepped up with the sell-off. A call-heavy wall sits near 23,000, a put-heavy wall near 22,800; price sits closer to the put side.
Developing Day Type
Shape looks like a B-Shape — a swift liquidation break, not fresh selling. The drop may exhaust once forced selling clears — but wait for price to prove that, not the label.
Today’s Plan
Line in the sand: 22,850 (IB low).
– Below: sellers in control toward the untouched volume levels at 22,900-22,980 (unfilled since April), then 22,676.
– Above (reclaimed): liquidation exhausting; look for a push back to 23,021-23,057 and the 23,040 value low.
– Trap warning: a bounce stalling at 23,021-23,057 without reclaiming it just confirms sellers still in charge.
Key Levels (high to low)
– 23,080 — IB High — first-hour ceiling
– 23,116 — Broken balance floor — Friday’s level, now overhead
– 23,021-23,057 — Broken buying zone — former support
– 23,000 — Call wall — options overhead level
– 22,900-22,980 — Untouched volume levels — unfilled since April
– 22,850 — IB Low — line in the sand
– 22,676 — Measured-move target — past the 22,800 put wall